Select an archive episode to inspect its transmission signature.
THE CHAIN
REACTION.
A failure is never just a failure. Trace the mechanisms that turn a local shock into systemic pressure — then test where the transmission could be interrupted.
TRANSMISSION FIELD SYNTHETIC / MODEL
PATTERN EXPLORERComparing synthetic shock signatures
Compare modelled stress profiles across six synthetic shock origins. No historical training or external AI service.
ANALYSINGMODEL ONLY
Select a shock to inspect its nearest synthetic analogue.
THE EXPERIMENT
Where does the crisis go next?
Select a shock, tune its severity, then inspect the network. The engine models mechanisms, not real-world default probabilities.
SYNTHETIC MODEL / NO LIVE EXPOSURE DATA
BONDSTATS / TCR
DRAG TO PAN · SCROLL TO ZOOM · SELECT A NODE OR LINK
STRESSEDEXPOSEDINACTIVECLICK ANY NODE
PROPAGATION TIME T + 0Select a scenario and run the experiment
INITIAL SHOCKEARLY TRANSMISSIONFEEDBACKSTABILISED MODEL
INTERVENTION LAB
Break the chain.
Apply a hypothetical safeguard and see which transmission channels change. Every intervention has assumptions and limitations.
COUNTERFACTUAL COMPARISONNO SAFEGUARDS SELECTED
BASELINE STRESS—
WITH SAFEGUARDS—
MODELLED REDUCTION—
Differences are produced by transparent, user-adjustable assumptions. They are not estimates of real-world intervention effectiveness.
BONDSTATS / HISTORICAL RESEARCH
EXPLORE THE COMPLETE ARCHIVE ↗The crisis record.
Fourteen turning points from the original Bond Market Archive. Explore how different market regimes exposed funding, duration, sovereign and liquidity vulnerabilities. Historical interpretation is separate from the synthetic engine.
HISTORICAL EPISODES
HISTORY IS EVIDENCE, NOT TRAINING DATA.
Archive episodes describe documented historical regimes. The similarity analysis above compares synthetic scenario outputs only; no historical cases are fed into the model or used to claim forecasting accuracy.
RESEARCH OUTPUT
The crisis dossier.
Make the experiment reproducible. Preserve the scenario, assumptions, intervention choices and limitations.
SCENARIO—
PARAMETERS—
ACTIVE SAFEGUARDS—
ENGINEDETERMINISTIC / V1
MODEL & EVIDENCE
Evidence before spectacle.
Financial contagion is not a single mechanical domino line. It depends on exposures, balance sheets, market depth, funding structures, legal arrangements, expectations and policy responses. This laboratory represents possible transmission mechanisms with a directed graph. A node represents a financial channel; an arrow represents a hypothetical pathway, not a verified institution-to-institution claim.
Each scenario seeds an initial shock and propagates dimensionless intensities through damped links over discrete time steps. Liquidity buffers and safeguards modify assumed coefficients. The engine is deterministic and reproducible, but deliberately uncalibrated: it does not predict failures, infer actual exposures, estimate probabilities, or replace expert stress testing. The historical archive presents sourced chronology separately and does not back-fit its events into synthetic indices.
WHAT IT DOESTeaches mechanisms, exposes assumptions, compares counterfactuals, exports reproducible experiments.
WHAT IT DOES NOT DOForecast crises, certify resilience, assess individual institutions or ingest live confidential data.
DATA POLICYRuns locally in your browser; no sign-in, third-party analytics or external API required for simulation.