{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "project": "The Autonomous Finance Project",
  "publisher": "BondStats",
  "catalogue_updated": "2026-11-07",
  "editorial_policy": "Independent original annotations, source links and transparent limitations. Not endorsements or copied publications.",
  "data_classification": "curated, public, dated evidence; not live telemetry",
  "items": [
    {
      "id": "boe-2026",
      "title": "Artificial intelligence in UK financial services — 2026",
      "institution": "Bank of England / FCA",
      "date": "2026-10-26",
      "category": "Adoption & autonomy",
      "type": "Survey",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2026/artificial-intelligence-in-uk-financial-services-2026",
      "observation": "The survey distinguishes decision support, constrained execution, conditional autonomy and broad autonomy. These are materially different forms of delegated authority.",
      "research_question": "Can observable governance evidence distinguish automated assistance from genuinely independent execution?",
      "limitations": "Survey respondents are not a census of the global financial system."
    },
    {
      "id": "bis-agenti",
      "title": "Project Agenti",
      "institution": "Bank for International Settlements",
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "category": "Payments & liquidity",
      "type": "Research project",
      "url": "https://www.bis.org/node/87745",
      "observation": "A controlled simulation initiative explores how AI-driven payment choices affect liquidity, timing, gridlock and shock propagation.",
      "research_question": "When does locally rational payment scheduling create system-wide gridlock?",
      "limitations": "An ongoing project, not evidence of live adoption in payment infrastructures."
    },
    {
      "id": "bundesbank-agentic",
      "title": "Agentic payments: when payments learn to think",
      "institution": "Deutsche Bundesbank",
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "category": "Payments & governance",
      "type": "Institutional analysis",
      "url": "https://publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikationen-en/reports-studies/monthly-reports/monthly-report-september-2026-1008246?article=agentic-payments-when-payments-learn-to-think-1007394",
      "observation": "Probabilistic agent decisions require clear mandates and verifiable instructions before interacting with deterministic settlement infrastructure.",
      "research_question": "What is the minimum audit trail needed to establish an agent’s authorization?",
      "limitations": "A conceptual analysis, not a quantitative estimate of systemic failure."
    },
    {
      "id": "boe-fsr",
      "title": "Financial Stability Report — July 2026",
      "institution": "Bank of England",
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "category": "Financial stability",
      "type": "Stability report",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stability-report/2026/july-2026",
      "observation": "Increasingly autonomous systems create questions around traceability, liability and correlated market behavior.",
      "research_question": "How can supervisory visibility keep pace with machine-speed decision cycles?",
      "limitations": "Broad stability analysis; does not measure a universal intervention threshold."
    },
    {
      "id": "imf-agentic",
      "title": "How Agentic AI Will Reshape Payments",
      "institution": "International Monetary Fund",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "category": "Payments & governance",
      "type": "Policy note",
      "url": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/imf-notes/2026/english/insea2026004.pdf",
      "observation": "Agent-mediated initiation introduces probabilistic decision-making into payment systems built around predictable execution.",
      "research_question": "Which delegated mandates preserve accountability without eliminating useful automation?",
      "limitations": "Exploratory note; not a definitive forecast of adoption."
    },
    {
      "id": "bis-cash",
      "title": "AI agents for cash management in payment systems",
      "institution": "Bank for International Settlements",
      "date": "2025-11-26",
      "category": "Payments & liquidity",
      "type": "Working paper",
      "url": "https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1310-ai-agents-cash-management-payment-systems",
      "observation": "Prompt-based experiments investigate liquidity buffers, transaction prioritization and settlement-delay tradeoffs.",
      "research_question": "Are agent strategies robust when multiple participants respond to the same liquidity shock?",
      "limitations": "Experimental scenarios cannot establish real-world operational reliability."
    }
  ],
  "hypotheses": [
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "statement": "Intervention capacity deteriorates nonlinearly as execution speed increases relative to detection and escalation latency.",
      "status": "untested",
      "falsification": "Show controlled environments in which intervention margin remains stable as execution speed increases."
    },
    {
      "id": "H2",
      "statement": "Shared technology dependencies can amplify otherwise independent automated decisions.",
      "status": "untested",
      "falsification": "Demonstrate robust isolation under common-provider failures across a representative network."
    },
    {
      "id": "H3",
      "statement": "Clear agent mandates and audit evidence improve accountability without requiring universal human approval.",
      "status": "untested",
      "falsification": "Find no meaningful improvement in attributable decisions in matched governance experiments."
    }
  ],
  "rightsAndReuse": {
    "recordPolicy": "Bibliographic metadata, links and original BondStats annotations only",
    "thirdPartyFullText": "not republished",
    "thirdPartyAbstracts": "not republished without explicit permission or compatible licence",
    "thirdPartyFigures": "not republished without explicit permission or compatible licence",
    "sourceLinks": "link to original publishers",
    "licenceVerification": "required before importing third-party text, figures or datasets",
    "automatedDiscovery": "discovered metadata is not editorially verified"
  },
  "portal_release": "afp-launch-stability-2026-11-07",
  "version_scope": "evidence catalogue schema version"
}