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YIELD CURVE · BOND MARKET ANSWER

Why can the yield curve uninvert before a recession?

A curve can steepen out of inversion when short-term yields begin falling rapidly as markets price policy easing in response to weaker economic conditions.

SHORT ANSWER

The core idea

A curve can steepen out of inversion when short-term yields begin falling rapidly as markets price policy easing in response to weaker economic conditions.

THE MECHANISM

What is happening underneath

The uninversion can therefore occur because recession risk is becoming more immediate rather than because the warning has disappeared.

MARKET INTERPRETATION

How investors should read it

Investors should distinguish a bull steepening from a long-end selloff.

BONDSTATS TAKEAWAY

The same market move can carry different information depending on which maturity, issuer and risk premium is changing. Read the question together with the underlying concepts rather than treating one price move as a universal signal.

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