How the United States curve changed across regimes
Historical yield curves provide more information than a time series of one maturity. They show whether a repricing originated at the policy-sensitive front end, whether long-term yields moved with or against it, and whether the market transitioned through inversion, flattening or steepening as the macro regime changed.
Changes in the relationship between short and long Treasury yields can reveal shifts in policy expectations well before the policy rate itself changes. The 2s10s and 3m10y segments are therefore widely followed as cycle and recession-sensitive measures.
A restrictive late-cycle curve was followed by rapid easing as the technology boom unwound and recession risk increased.
The curve inverted before the financial crisis and then steepened sharply as policy rates were cut and demand for safe assets surged.
Treasury yields collapsed as policy moved to the effective lower bound and the Federal Reserve deployed large-scale asset purchases.
Rapid policy tightening pushed short yields above long yields and produced one of the most closely watched inversions of the post-Volcker era.